Symptom
Cost was computed as foreign price x rate x coefficient. Compared against the actual payment record, it was off by 16% (estimate 115,470 vs actual 99,000).
Cause
The coefficient is an average and the rate is from a different moment. The estimate isn't wrong in itself — but a source record existed and was going unused. The payment confirmation email had the real figure.
Fix
★★ The longer the estimation pipeline, the more quietly a single bad input skews it. This one had three inputs (price, rate, coefficient) — and the currency itself had been wrong at one point.